Pulling the Puzzles Apart - Failed Precision Fermentation, Surcharge Pricing and Green Ammonia #210
Climate Model, Precision Fermentation Fail, Green Ammonia, High Prices due to Hormuz and AI-Generated Fake News
Four stories that matter this week:
On March 30, Le Monde wrote this piece about a young French researcher who concluded that ‘Climate change will cost 50% of GDP by 2100’. Commentators explained that this mathematical formula is better because, instead of measuring climate damage using local thermometers, it looks at global temperature, oceans included.
Your grandma at this point would say, “Thank you, Captain Obvious”. She would also continue to say how arrogant we are to think we could fully model the global climate. Inward, we cannot yet model the human body and its trillions of interactions with full accuracy. Outward, we cannot yet model a single forest ecosystem and how it acts as a carbon sink, nor the inner workings of its mycelium network alone.
Does that mean we should give up? Certainly not. On the contrary, we should very much continue to map out the unknowns, while self-reminding that any oversimplification is oftentimes a lie. We talked about this with the case of Biochar or previously Plastic Credits, and how they are likely to only serve as financial instruments for now.Speaking of oversimplification, the precision fermentation startups sold a beautiful story: lab-grown dairy and proteins on an industrial scale. The science indeed worked well in a 10- or 50-litre bioreactor.
Between 2020 and 2022, they raised billions of dollars, and started looking for a contract manufacturer that could run the process at 10,000 or 50,000 litres. This is where most of them failed.
The world has enormous fermentation capacity, but most of it is configured for pharmaceuticals, ethanol, or established industrial enzymes. Food-grade precision fermentation requires specific equipment and regulatory clearances. Plus, large incumbent ingredient companies - ADM, Cargill, DSM-Firmenich - have very little incentive to lease their infrastructure cheaply to startups trying to disrupt their core business.This stalemate will continue to be the status quo in Europe and North America for now. Another model is observed in China, with a more top-down approach but cannot be replicated easily. We’ll continue to report on this space in the next few years.
Speaking of going from lab to grid, Denmark is to build the world’s first green ammonia plant powered entirely by wind and solar. The plant is to produce over 5,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually, preventing 8,200 tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. Green ammonia has been highlighted as a candidate to decarbonise international shipping (currently accounts for around 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions). The challenge remains cost: green ammonia is still significantly more expensive than its fossil-fuel equivalent.
Speaking of expensive-ness, on March 27, Toray Industries announced emergency surcharge pricing on performance chemicals, carbon fibre composites, and fibres and textiles - citing soaring crude oil and naphtha costs from the Hormuz disruption. The surcharge is framed as temporary, but Toray is also accelerating supply chain restructuring and diversifying sources for the medium term. Toray is not the only one impacted. Expect Hormuz and the new extra “industrial tax” as a new normal in 2026. We’ll report on this story weekly, so that teams can prepare accordingly for their quarters.
Enjoy your weekend. Stay sharp - and keep building.
Anh
On behalf of the Tocco team
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Further Readings · Material & Manufacturing News · 04.2026
(Global 🌏) Monomaterials in Packaging - Regulators are pushing for monomaterial structures that can enter existing recycling streams. The manufacturing shift isn’t trivial (same-plastic structures melt at the same temperature, requiring precision sealing equipment), here’s a quick look.
(Global 🌏) Sourcing in This Economy? Charts of the Week are here: 1/ China still dominates global sourcing. 2/ US tariffs on Chinese exports hit 47.5%. Buyers shifted volumes to Vietnam, but 3/ Vietnam’s imports from China have nearly tripled since 2017. The supply chain moved; the dependency didn’t. If this is your space, download our free Guide to Sourcing in China & Vietnam 2026.
(Global 🌏) A small note on things that didn’t happen - only on social media. Hundreds of posts claimed that Singapore had installed “vertical panels filled with living algae” along major roads to improve air quality. If one stops and wonders, why would a tropical country generating an extraordinary amount of biomass - for free - need panels made of imported materials, powered by a grid that’s 93.1% natural gas for air quality? As Gen Z would say, “the math is not mathing”. Same vibe, viral posts about Balenciaga making “cardboard clothing” are also fake. Beware, AI-generated posts are meant to bait you into engagement with the posts. If you argue, chances are you’re arguing with a bot. Stay calm, and direct your attention to the right signals.